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NEOScan - PAST IMPACTORS

This page contains the results of the application of our algorithm to the cases of NEAs that have impacted the Earth few hours after the discovery. Currently there are three such asteroids, namely 2018 LA, 2014 AA, and 2008 TC3. They are also contained in the Past Impactors Page of NEODyS, which shows the results obtained with the LOV method.


Asteroid 2018 LA

Asteroid 2018 LA, also known as ZLAF9B2 prior to being designated, was a small (2-3 metres in diameter) Apollo near-Earth asteroid that impacted Earth at roughly 16:44 UTC (18:44 local time) on 2 June 2018 near the border of Botswana and South Africa. It was discovered only 8 hours prior the impact by the Mount Lemmon Survey.

The table below shows the outcomes of our software while observations were flowing in.

Asteroid name Number of observations Impact Probability Impact flag Data
2018 LA 3 0.08% 1 Object page
11 5.1% 3 Object page
12 38.3% 3 Object page
14 100% 4 Object page


Asteroid 2014 AA

2014 AA has been discovered by Richard A. Kowalski at the Catalina Sky Survey on the new year's eve of 2014. It was roughly 2–4 metres in diameter and struck Earth on 2 January 2014. The object was discovered 21 hours before the impact, but it has not the same amount of astrometric observations of 2008 TC3 because of the atypical night in which it has been spotted.

We used the first tracklet, composed by 3 observations, and then the whole set of 7 observations. The results are accessible through the following table.

For the results, we used the first tracklet composed by 4 observations, and then the first two tracklets, that is 7 observations (cfr. Spoto et al. (2018)).

Asteroid name Number of observations Impact Probability Impact flag Data
2014 AA 3 3.2% 3 Object page
7 100% 4 Object page


Asteroid 2008 TC3

2008 TC3 has been discovered by Richard A. Kowalski at the Catalina Sky Survey on October 7, 2008. It was 4.1 metres in diameter and entered Earth's atmosphere on October 7, 2008. It exploded at an estimated 37 kilometres altitude above the Nubian Desert in Sudan.

The object was spotted 19 hours before the impact, and it is the first body to be observed and tracked prior to reaching the Earth. After the discovery, hundreds of astrometric observations have been submitted to the Minor Planet Center and these observations allowed the computation of the orbit and the prediction of the impact.

We used the first tracklet composed by 4 observations, and then the first two tracklets (7 observations). The results are accessible through the following table (cfr. Spoto et al. (2018)).

Asteroid name Number of observations Impact Probability Impact flag Data
2008 TC3 4 3.5% 3 Object page
7 99.7% 4 Object page