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(99942) Apophis  ▹ 
IMPACTOR TABLE
Date MJD σ σimp dist ± width stretch p_RE exp. en PS TS
yr-mo-day (RE) (RE/σ) (MT)
2068-04-12.634 76483.634 -1.317 0.000 1.73 ± 0.006 3.85e+5 1.88e-6 1.43e-3 -3.67 0
2068-10-15.324 76669.324 -0.182 0.000 1.48 ± 0.000 5.29e+6 2.39e-7 1.81e-4 -4.57 0
2069-04-13.079 76849.079 4.127 0.000 1.68 ± 0.000 1.67e+5 1.80e-9 1.36e-6 -6.70 0
2069-10-15.604 77034.604 1.993 0.000 1.85 ± 0.000 3.34e+6 6.56e-8 4.97e-5 -5.14 0
2069-10-15.973 77034.973 2.543 0.000 0.46 ± 0.016 9.20e+5 7.23e-8 5.49e-5 -5.09 0
2077-04-13.165 79771.165 4.205 0.000 2.14 ± 0.000 1.03e+6 1.34e-10 1.02e-7 -7.88 0
2078-04-13.442 80136.442 4.125 0.000 1.61 ± 0.000 6.23e+6 4.32e-11 3.27e-8 -8.38 0
2102-04-11.809 88899.809 2.556 0.000 4.22 ± 0.253 1.85e+7 2.96e-9 2.18e-6 -6.68 0
2106-10-16.871 90548.871 2.540 0.000 2.03 ± 0.000 6.53e+5 3.88e-8 2.94e-5 -5.57 0
2116-04-15.650 94017.650 1.989 0.000 2.14 ± 0.000 3.10e+9 3.63e-11 1.44e-8 -8.87 0

 

Based on 4105 optical observations (of which 87 are rejected as outliers) from 2004-03-15.109 to 2013-05-07.150.

Coordinates are given on the Target Plane
Unit is one Earth radius, but impact cross section has radius between 2.15 and 2.15 Earth radii

Coordinates for LOV = KEP scaled= T second= F

OrbFit software version= 4.3, 08/05/2012 Date of computation=20130801 220340.613 CET

Note that this risk table has been computed by using information coming only from optical and radar astrometry, without considering any a priori constraint, in particular on the Yarkovsky effect, based upon models and physical observations, and by using the Line Of Variation method. Nevertheless, the results are qualitatively compatible with the ones obtained at JPL, which has been obtained by using a priori information and a MonteCarlo method, as described in the paper Yarkovsky-driven impact risk analysis for asteroid (99942) Apophis by Farnocchia, Chesley, Chodas, Micheli, Tholen, Milani, Elliott and Bernardi, Icarus 224, 192-200, 2013.

 





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